Oscillating between the bulls and the bears.

Oscillating between the bulls and the bears. 

When we trek the mountains , we are at ease from the base to a certain height but as the mountain gets steeper not only the air gets thinner but also the area of free float i.e. the foothold area starts becoming meager  until a point comes when one wrong footstep could mean  near death fall.

Stock markets are akin to this mountain trekking where unfortunately most investors watching the markets from the sidelines are tempted to take the plunge awed by the scathing speed,  wanting to cash in  and in fact end up  joining nearer to the peak. In the bargain with lack of experience instead of making money, face a huge fall. 

The Nifty has recently touched a high of 5949.85 crossing decisively the April 2011 peak and is perhaps heading for higher levels. As the markets gather steam, the bulls shed their horns and transform into an Arabian horse or an ostrich to speed past all earlier peaks  whirl winding  in its fold all those who are on the sidelines, witnessing the rise.

However let us take stock of two things: 

1.    It took the market almost one and half years to cross its earlier high

2.    This rise is on the back of a low of 4788.95  touched on18th May 2012

Thus the markets have surged 24 % in the past seven months. The next peak of 6181.05 scaled on 4^th Jan 2011 would mean that the Nifty can yet again surge another 230 points or 3.88 % from the current high.

At the same time we all are aware about the volatility of the equity markets. The question is whether to wait for that 3.88 % rise or to book profits now. If we take stock of the current global cues, we find that Market had remained cautious over the debt issue in Greece and Spain for the major part of 2011-12. However, Greece’s steps towards addressing its debt concerns and Spain’s formal request for banking sector bailout have provided some respite.

Markets would be closely watching the progress over the impending US fiscal cliff for further cues going ahead. Though bouts of uncertainty both in US and Eurozone might support the strengthening of the dollar which would in turn mean the weakening of the rupee. This could make the equity markets vulnerable.

Cues from China and the seriousness on reforms by the Indian Government have helped the markets so far but the pall of lingering gloom is still not averted.

Yet  many experts have opined that risk sentiment is expected to improve going forward amidst expectations that the fiscal cliff would be eventually averted. This is a huge positive for the market.

On the other hand with yields on fixed income instruments having reached their peaks and now at best expected to soften in the next few quarters or at worst expected to remain static, there is a high possibility of performance improvement in Debt Funds. 

Hence it is time to review the asset allocation. It is common experience that the novice investors are fully invested when markets are at their bottom. When time is ripe for investing, they do not have any investible funds left in their kitty.  A disciplined approach to investing also entails booking of profits at various levels so that one is not lulled into the cycle of greed & fear.

Given that we have to live with the volatility of the markets a dynamic asset allocation can help investors to achieve their goals within the estimated time frame.

·         It is now advisable to book partial profits in equities and shift to debt funds. It would auger well to shift 30 % of your current equity portfolio to debt funds. Agreed that it would be a lost opportunity if markets surge another 4 % or higher. However let us not forget that markets never trend upwards in one straight line. They tend to halt, correct themselves in the interim before the long haul giving ample opportunity for the investors to invest again at the troughs.

·         Another avenue for investors in the 30.9% tax bracket is to shift part of the equity portfolio to invest in tax free bonds. With a coupon of about 7.69% , it translates to pretax yield of >11 %  - a yield that no bank offers and can be locked up for a 10 year horizon. With listing and liquidity these bonds are freely tradable. So if and when bond prices surge and are expected to peak out, investors can again shift back to equity. Thus there is no compulsion to lock in investments for 10 years.

·         Investors could do well to book 50 % profits for the amounts invested during the fall of Aug 2011 – Dec2011 as depending on the point of entry, they would have earned an annual return of anywhere between 14% to 24 % and also qualify for long term capital gains. 

·         Shift SIPS partially from equity to Gold  or Debt Funds: While SIPS are an excellent tool for averaging in falling equity markets, in a rising market , they tend to buy into equities at higher and higher prices – a strategy that in fact harms the long term goal.

Happy Investing!

Anagha Hunnurkar

December 16, 2012

Of Amitabh and Khushwant Singh

Of Amitabh and Khushwant Singh

Last week, the world celebrated the birthdays of two young celebrities – Amitabh Bachchan all of 70 years and Khushwant Singh -98. The next day not just page three but many other pages were splashed with news of the celebrations. The angry young man of the 70’s had turned 70 and still going strong. Not just as an actor but as a person. Thinking of Khushwant Singh, one can just not forget the Illustrated Weekly of India , his wide variety of books and his famous column ‘Malice towards one and all ’ A close look at their life sketch - so very diverse and yet a common thread – self discipline. 

While the Big B’s penchant for punctuality and discipline is known am not too sure whether Khushwant Singh and self discipline, is palatable – one would wonder, especially after reading his love for the peg. Yet many may not know that for years he has been waking up at 4 am to write his columns, has been an avid swimmer, meticulously disciplined in diet and timings. 

Thinking about these two men is so very inspiring – a life full of purpose. Yet it hits me hard when I think of Sant Dnyaneshwar and his choice to take samadhi at the tender age of 21.He has always been a ‘hero’ for me since childhood. One is awestruck to read works like the Dnaneshwari, Amrutanubhav, et all. Why is it that he felt his mission was complete – could he not have continued to spread knowledge and inspire the future generation? I keep thinking to myself but get no answer.

Coming back to  the two birthday boys, over the years after observing many a personalities and persons, I have realized that discipline is as much an inherent quality as any other – may be emotions, feelings, temper – any. So rather than calling it discipline we must always give it the reverence of self discipline – in the same breath as we revere -  self realization . The difference being that self discipline is attainable though systematic resolve and rigor while the seers say that it takes millions of years and cycles of birth and death to attain self realization. 

When we see a child misbehaving, it is so natural to blame the parents or the school for lack of discipline. We have grown up listening to –spare the rod and spoil the child and yet despite strict discipline there are children who have gone wayward. The so called ‘pragmatist’ would promptly then term it as over discipline. In the words of Bette Davis – ‘Discipline is a symbol of caring to a child. Discipline is guidance. If there is love, there is no such thing as being too tough with a child’. She has used two powerful words – caring (mind you not caning) and love. As an American actress of yesteryear, she in fact gained a reputation as a perfectionist. She too, like Amitabh had failed in her first screen test. We all know that both reached pinnacles of glory through sheer grit and determination. This ‘never say die’ attitude stems from self discipline that gives one the confidence to brave every storm. 

So does that mean that if one is not having these inherent qualities, one is doomed? We are all born with hardware and software. Thankfully ‘qualities’ form the software part and can be changed or imbibed. However that needs a sincere self talk and effort to accept change. Today sleeping at 4 am after partying hard is the ‘new normal’. Think about ‘waking’ up at 4.30 am - not just difficult but sounds almost weird? It is also considered sacred by the scriptures and known as ‘Brahmamuhurta’. It’s in fact the time when the whole world is sleeping and the right time to be in silence to afford self reflection. 

Surprisingly many do wake up at this time and invest it in spiritual pursuits like meditation, breathing exercises, gymming, swimming, power walks, yoga etc and benefit immensely. There is a bonus too – as the darkness slowly brings in the soft  dawn like the blush on the cheeks of a Kashmiri damsel and ushers in the morning glory , one gets to witness the rising Sun – a ball of red that transforms itself into a radiant golden fireball of light. Try it, you will love it. It will open a whole new universe within. 

Anagha Hunnurkar

October 14, 2012

Mumbai calling…….

Mumbai calling……. 

Shalini was in a pleasant mood as she set about to pack for the journey back home. Mahalakshmi Express left Kolhapur at about 8.30 pm and since Tanuja came home by about 7 pm, there was enough leisure. For the past few months the mother daughter duo were staying in Kolhapur as Tanuja was posted there. So every opportunity for a family reunion was always welcome. ‘Aaj main upar, aasman niche’ hummed Shalini.  As she busied herself to get set for the journey, she would remember some past incident or bemuse herself by imagining how her younger daughter Shipra would be waiting at the door of their Mumbai house with open arms. For more than thirty years the foursome had lived as one family and now Tanuja’s posting had separated them. The father daughter duo had jobs in Mumbai. Parag’s face came floating in her thoughts. She smiled to herself. How intent and eager he always was to meet her, now that they were separated. 

As the clock ticked to 7 pm, she scurried to the kitchen. Tanuja would come any moment and would want her meals. The girl always returned home famished. As she rolled out the chapattis she was mentally back in Mumbai house. This time she had specially got the mawa packed so that she could treat her dear ones with oozing mouth watering gulab jamuns. She hustled to the travel bag to be sure that she had taken the mawa. Better check the fridge, she thought to herself. She wanted to ensure that all was properly done. 

She heard the door click just as she was about to finish garnishing the curry with coriander. Kolhapur was blessed with farm fresh vegetables and cooking meals was a treat to the eyes and delight to her soul. Tanuja came in, gave a wide grin and rushed to the washroom. Shalini deftly laid the table with steaming hot food….exactly the way Tanuja liked it to be. They were both very happy today. Although they did not discuss much both could feel the rapture in their heart. Home sweet home …Tanuja thought to herself. As they were relishing the meals, it started becoming breezy. A good shower would be so cooling, Shalini thought. However Mother Nature had different plans. The breeze slowly and surely turned into thunderous storm and there was a heavy downpour. It was almost 7.20 pm and they both thought that it was better to reach the station in time. 

Tanuja went out with her umbrella in the downpour to get an auto rickshaw, while Shalini started to wind up. Tanuja went all the way up to the main road but not a single rickshaw in sight. In the meantime Shalini had brought down the entire luggage from their fourth floor apartment. The watchman’s wife had helped the process and she too waited for Tanuja to come. 7.45 pm and no sign of Tanuja. The watchman’s wife was telling her that all roads get deserted the moment it rains as people prefer to stay home. Shalini grew restless.

The watchman’s son was also plying rickshaw but had gone to Rankala. Shalini urged the watchman’s wife to call him up. The lad agreed but said that he will need about 15 minutes to come. Never mind said Shalini and called up Tanuja to come back. ‘Is it a cloudburst, Ma?’ queried Tanuja. ‘I really don’t know dear’ – a sheepish Shalini. Finally, the rickshaw came in at about 8 pm and they sped to the station. It was 8.20 pm by the time they reached the station. 

The duo started running across to reach the platform. Dodging people on the way and shouting ‘side, side’ Tanuja was carrying the entire luggage and at the same time cautioning Shalini to take care of herself. Just then Shalini’s chappal gave way. The whole upper had torn off .There was no time to think. With both slippers in hand she continued to keep pace with Tanuja. Finally they scrambled into the compartment and the train ambled out of the station.

Fully drenched from head to toe, slipper less Shalini had not yet lost her presence of mind. Panting for breath, she quickly opened the suit cases and took out a dry set of clothes for both of them she quietly told Tanuja to head to the loo before it could be used by other fellow passengers. So that it would still be dry and worth using for a change over. In all this milieu, the watchman’s wife and her son called up on their cell phones to know whether they had managed to catch the train. After all the ruckus, all settled and then she set to repair her slipper. She asked Tanuja to give her some ‘Orbit’. Loosening the chewing gum, she sealed the uppers to the sole and then kept a suitcase on top as a load. In place of the finger strap she used a hair band.

Fellow passengers were awe struck at this creative feat. As the train entered the Mumbai CST both daughter mother duo got off the train. Shalini with her repaired slippers was walking as if nothing had happened, while one of the passengers with eyes wide open in amazement was silently following them. Only when they sat in the taxi, did he heave a sigh of relief. As for Shalini, she couldn’t just help laughing as she saw him get out of sight.

What an ordeal! But with a peaceful mind all was smoothened to a memorable journey back home…..Mumbai calling.

Anagha Hunnurkar

October 8, 2012

Ladakh dance forms – a peep window to Ladakhi culture

Ladakh dance forms – a peep window to Ladakhi culture

While on a trip to Ladakh , had the occasion to witness a cultural show that encompassed the Ladakhi traditions and culture into a dance and song form interwoven with a  short narrative . Just like a Bharat Natyam performance the musicians were seated on the floor on the right side of the stage. Flutes, drums, pipes and guitar- like string instruments called Damian – a troupe of four was managing between themselves a host of other small instruments to give life to the dances.

It was a short programme of about 7 performances, very carefully culled, to display the Ladakhi culture of various races and tribes. While largely a Buddhist community having influence of the Nepali, Kashmiri Tibetan cultures, the teachings of Dalai Lama, the monasteries called Gompas, the Muslims also form a large part of their culture. This influence reflects in their dressing – much like the Kashmiris – long robes, salwars but instead of the dupatta , ladies wear a sashay around the robes and dawn yak skin coats quilted with silk , to fair the extreme cold. All the men and women wore yak skin boots throughout the dances.

The show started with Lharna – a welcome music – a melody of drums and pipes to invite everyone to the show. Sweet enchanting tunes that set rhythm to the show.   Julley ! A Ladakhi word for greetings used both at the time of meeting as well as to bid good bye surely broke the ice and we all joined to respond – Julley! Suddenly we realised that we are a homogenous group of people as the distance between the performers and audience was bridged by a simple single word – Julley! The rugged mountains, the snowy chill – Ladakh they say is the next best destination to experience the Moon terrain and yet Julley  did all the magic!

It was an open air theatre and the musicians were seated under apricot trees laden with sweet fruit. The small Ladakhi children were plucking the fruit and relishing it. Their joyful Mongolian faces with pinched eyes and chubby cheeks coupled with tumultuous laughter added a whiff of carefree atmosphere to the evening.

The Chabskyan dance followed the Lharna. It is performed by men carrying brass jugs on their heads containing the chang - a local brew made from barley. The striking feature of every dance is the elaborate costume or regalia that are distinct for each dance based on the region from where the dance originated. In this dance the men sang and emoted to served the chang . We were told that some dancers of the yore could pour the chang into cups while holding the jugs atop their heads through deft movements of their body. The words were Ladakhi and tunes mountainous but that did not matter as the grace, the happiness of the dance filled the air.

The next dance was the Shondol performed by women. Traditionally this dance was performed by Takshoma – the royal court dancers. Naturally the regalia is very elaborate with brightly coloured stone studded turquoise head gears, deep brown robes held together by bright orange sashays and matched with orange salwars. They had beads, stones, shells and silver ornaments all over. Unlike Bhangra , the Ladakhi dances are soft and slow. As the song progresses the speed does pick up a bit but not as vibrant as the Bhangra of Punjab or Lavni of Maharashtra. Graceful flowing movements is the mainstay of all these dances.

Again it was the turn of the men to perform. The valiant theme was portrayed through a song narrative of King Kesar and Queen Dugumar . The king’s conquests were depicted by handful of men dressed as soldiers with real bows and arrows. When they aimed the arrows at the audience for a moment we freezed  lest some arrow leave the bow. The dancers handled it so very deftly that although the arrows left the bows, next moment we found that the arrows were still in their hand, which they then put back in the quivers that they were sporting on their backs. All the action in a dance and song form.

This followed with a Chartses dance performed by the women to welcome the birds in summer. The migratory birds leave the place in winter and return in summer. The ladies were wearing bright turquoise Kurta and Green duppattas. The dupattas were worn to depict wings of the birds.  They celebrate the arrival of birds in summer.

The Jabro dance from the nomadic area of Jabr in the Changtheng area (mostly Tibetans) is performed mainly by vigorous thumping of feet by young men and women, while the elders prepare meals. The mainstay of the people of Jabr  is rearing of Yaks and the Jabro dance is a part of the Losar celebrations that welcome the New Year. It’s a chance for the young to intermingle just like we have New Year parties.

 The Mentok Stanmo dance comes from a region rich in dairy products and is performed by 25 young men and women. It is a happy merry dance.

The list cannot be complete without mentioning the sacred Mask dance or the Cham dance performed by the lamas in the monasteries and is a part of the religious festivities ringing in the victory of the good over the evil. It depicts incidents from the life and times of Padmasambhava or the Buddha. The entire village attached to the monastery attends just like our Durga Puja or Ganesh festivals. The festivities include pujas, traditional music and dances. The elaborately painted masks are used to signify the evil tendencies as well as the good and one look at the mask immediately deciphers one from the other.

Finally the show ended with the Tashispa dance, which means happy ending. As per Ladakhi tradition any dance show starts with Lharna and ends with Tashispa. We all joined the dancers at the end of the dance and the musicians hastened their beats to make it a fast number.

After that show, Ladakhis with their affable smile were no more strangers of an unknown land but our own brethren of Incredible India!

Anagha Hunnurkar

August 30, 2012